Pantera Capital founder and CEO Dan Morehead stands by his incredibly positive forecast for bitcoin in 2021. He claims bitcoin is still well on its way to becoming $155,000 by August this year.
Stock to flow forecast
In the January version of Pantera’s Blockchain mailing, Morehead writes that bitcoin’s price movements, although delayed by a week, are exactly as predicted based on the stock-to-flow forecast published last year.
‚Bitcoin is right on track with the forecast we shared in our April grind. Our analysis was based on comparing the decline in the supply/flow of bitcoin compared to the outstanding stock at the time of each halving, and the subsequent impact on the price.‘
Catching up with bitcoin
According to Pantera’s predictions, the price of bitcoin was falling behind by as much as 15 weeks in July 2020. In December, bitcoin began to catch up with Pantera’s predictions and in mid-January, the leading cryptocurrency reached the ninth milestone in Pantera’s forecast after climbing to $38,000. If the bitcoin price continues to follow his predictions, the currency will rise to $45,268 on February 15.
Impact of halving
The investment fund’s predictions are made based on bitcoin’s halving cycle. Morehead says that historically, the bitcoin price always rises after every halving. Halves take place every four years.
After the first halving in 2012, bitcoin supply decreased by just over 15% in a 446-day period, while block rewards were halved from 50 to 25 BTC. Subsequently, the whole world witnessed a 9,212% increase in the bitcoin price. After the halving in 2016, bitcoin rose by 2,910%.
If bitcoin follows Pantera’s predicted trajectory, Morehead expects the cryptocurrency to peak in August 2021 with a value of $115,212. That’s an increase of more than 1,091% after halving in May 2020.